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SATURDAY NIGHT MARKETS: Oct. 5 – 9


Drop in VIX and stock markets all positive
.

As every Sunday we try to read the past week’s aggregate data of the most important international indexes. This week the major stock exchanges all went up. A small drop only on Tuesday and then recovering very well in the following days.
Volatility stops for a few days. The decline in the VIX (-9.52) indicates this to us.

Markets continue to move on NEWS

Is this nice uptick the result of a recovering economy? Of course not. It is more the idea of a possible recovery, albeit slow, despite the fact that COVID contagion is picking up.
Trump appearing cured and flaunting good health, Lagarde (ECB) promising more help to stimulate the economy, and some less black macroeconomic data than expected have helped boost the shares on the various world indexes.

The Nasdaq reared its head again with +4.18 percent and followed by all other U.S. indexes. Europe also did very well (DAX and MIB close to a rise of 3 percent). Eurostoxx +2.55%. Japan (2.56 percent) also did well. Less well is China (+1.62 percent) but it discounts the climb of previous weeks.

Here is the weekly summary table:

VIX drop
data processing from Webank’s T3

Nasdaq still the best performing:

VIX drop
Data processing from Webank’s T3.

What happened this week at MIB?

As we said, the MIB gained almost 3 percent this week, matching the performance of the European indices. Added to last week’s +2% we have almost a nice +5% in just two weeks.

Is Italy therefore recovering? If we analyze the companies in the MIB, it is always the usual ones that have had a positive performance since the beginning (13 out of 40 companies).

This week, as crude oil rose, energy stocks such as ENI and SAIPEM benefited the most, seeing good gains for the first time in weeks. How long will it last?

Here are the top 10 performances of MIB stocks:

Nameclosing 09/10/2020closing 02/10/2020Var %
Bper Bank1,20250,8780436,95
Cnh Industrial7,1486,52179,6
Pirelli & C3,8533,52939,17
Saipem1,55951,4358,68
Azimut Holding16,2415,11657,43
Mediolanum Bank6,5956,14287,36
Mediobanca7,1766,70357,05
Eni6,8626,41416,98
Italian Postal Service8,0167,50696,78
Unicredit7,4186,95136,71
Source: borsaitaliana.it

Interesting, however,once again, to see the performance since the beginning of the year of MIB stocks precisely to get a more complete view of the performance of the national index.

From the data we still have confirmation of the difficulty of companies listed on the MIB.
That still leaves only 13 out of 40 companies with a positive performance since the beginning of the year.

Of note is NEXI’s 7 percent decline due to corporate share sales. It still remains the second best performing company in the MIB since the beginning of the year. AMPLIFON and RECORDATI are fighting for third place, coming very close to second.

VIX drop
Source: borsaitaliana.it

What does next week hold in store for us? Most importantly, will the markets still fall prey to the news?

Meanwhile, we are getting closer and closer to the U.S. elections (Nov. 8). The VIX decline may stop and rise again. We shall see.
Expectations and the outcome of the U.S. election will greatly influence market performance.
We talked about it in this article, including explaining which stocks to watch out for and live on the lefonti.tv broadcast( you can review the videohere ).

Here is the economic calendar for the coming week where we can see what news (just the main ones) and new data may move the markets:

NowVal.EventPlannedPrevious
Monday, October 12, 2020
     
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
08:00 GBPAverage incomes excluding Bonuses (Ago)0,60%0,20%
08:00 GBPAverage wage index including bonuses (Ago)-0,60%-1,00%
08:00 GBPChange in claims for unemployment benefits (Set)80,0K73,7K
08:00 GBPChange in the level of employment on a quarterly basis (Monthly) (Ago)-24K-12K
08:00 GBPUnemployment rate (Ago)4,30%4,10%
11:00 EURZEW survey of sentiment on the German economy (Oct.)7477,4
11:00 EURZEW Sentiment of Confidence (Oct.) 73,9
13:00 USDOPEC Monthly Report   
14:30 USDMain Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (Set)0,20%0,40%
14:30 USDMain Consumer Price Index (Annual) (Set)1,80%1,70%
19:38 CNYExport (Annual) (Set)10,00%9,50%
19:38 CNYImports (Annual) (Set)0,20%-2,10%
to be fixed CNYTrade Balance (USD) (Set)59,98B58,93B
20:00 USDFederal Budget Budget (Set)-124,0B-200,0B
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
06:30 JPYIndustrial Production (Monthly) (Aug)  1,70%
11:00 EURIndustrial Production (Monthly) (Aug)0,70%4,10%
11:30 GBPLabor productivity (2nd quarter). -0,60%
14:30 USDMajor Producer Price Index (Monthly) (Set)0,20%0,40%
14:30 USDIPP (Monthly) (Set)0,20%0,30%
22:30 USDWeekly oil stocks 0,951M
Thursday, October 15, 2020
02:30 AUDChange in employment level (Set)-35,0K111,0K
03:30 CNYCPI (Monthly) (Set)0,30%0,40%
03:30 CNYCPI (Annual) (Set)1,80%2,40%
08:45 EURFrench CPI (Monthly) (Set)-0,50%-0,10%
to be fixed GBPFall Speech   
14:30 USDInitial claims for unemployment benefits 840K
14:30 USDPhiladelphia Fed manufacturing index (Oct.)1515
17:00 USDCrude oil stocks0,294M0,501M
Friday, October 16, 2020
00:45 NZDCPI (Quarterly) (Q3)-0,50%-0,50%
00:45 NZDCPI (Annual) (Q3)1,50%1,50%
01:30 JPYNational General Consumer Price Index (Annual) (Set)-0,40%-0,40%
10:00 EURItalian CPI (Monthly) (Set)-0,60%-0,60%
11:00 EURMain Consumer Price Index (Annual) (Set)0,20%0,20%
11:00 EURCPI (Annual) (Set)-0,30%-0,30%
11:00 EURCPI (Monthly) (Set)0,10%-0,40%
14:30 USDRetail Sales of Essential Goods (Monthly) (Set)0,40%0,70%
14:30 USDRetail Sales (Monthly) (Set)0,60%0,60%
15:15 USDIndustrial Production (Annual) (Set) -7,73%
15:15 USDIndustrial Production (Monthly) (Set)0,60%0,40%
source: investing.com

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